Earth Sciences Forum

scpg02 · Joined: 22 Jul 2007 Posts: 221 Location: Sacramento

Contact: Vince Stricherz
vinces@u.washington.edu
206-543-2580
University of Washington

Like it or not, uncertainty and climate change go hand-in-hand

Baywax · Joined: 23 Jul 2007 Posts: 113 Location: Pacific West Coast

Predicting the weather accurately is as uncertain as it gets!
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Anyone who conducts an argument by appealing to authority is not using his intelligence; he is just using his memory. Leonardo Da Vinci

Time flies like an arrow, fruit flies like a banana.
W.C. Fields

John L · Joined: 03 Nov 2007 Posts: 21

A great example of this is what is going on where I live here in the Raleigh NC area. I have two gigantic ferns that I adopted from a client, who can't take the time to keep them alive in the large hanging baskets. My goal is to bring them in, when the temperature goes below freezing, and then take them back out again when the low temp remains above freezing.

Normally I use Yahoo Weather and the Weather Underground for my forecasting. But I have learned that I must check on a daily basis, because the forecast for day after tomorrow is in danger of radically changing, for the worse, if I let a single day go by without checking. I could lose these magnificant ferns if I don't do that. And they are heavy, and hard to unhook and bring in to hang in the dining room.

My point is that if it is difficult for the weather to be forecast on a 48 hour basis, what can one expect over climate forecasting?

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If 50 million people believe a foolish thing, it is still a foolish thing.- Nobel prize winner, Anatole France (1844-1924)