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scpg02

Scientists Verify Predictive Model for Winter Weather

Scientists Verify Predictive Model for Winter Weather

Information depends on October snow cover in Siberia

August 20, 2007

Quote:
Scientists have verified the accuracy of a model that uses October snow cover in Siberia to predict upcoming winter temperatures and snowfall for the high- and mid-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere.

The model is called sCast, short for seasonal forecast model. Atmospheric scientist Judah Cohen of AER, Inc., in Lexington, Mass., and colleagues analyzed seven real-time winter forecasts and 33 winter hindcasts (simulations of winters going back to 1972) to verify sCast.

"sCast works well in accurately predicting winter conditions over much of the eastern United States and Northern Eurasia," said Jay Fein, program director in the National Science Foundation (NSF)'s Division of Atmospheric Sciences, which funded the research. "Dynamical model prediction of winter climate remains a formidable challenge, and statistical approaches such as Cohen's continue to be a valuable alternative."

The results are published this week in the American Meteorological Society's Journal of Climate.


http://www.nsf.gov/news/news_summ...=109820&org=NSF&from=news
Andre

Eons ago, when I was Air Force regular squadron pilot, there was a weather briefing every morning. Then the curtains close for the projector and the weatherman does his talk illutrated with the light images. That morning it was all fine, blue conditions, high pressure etc blah. Any questions?

"Yes, Do you expect any snow?"

"No certainly not"

"Then have look outside"

The curtain opened and sure enough it was snowing cats and dogs, Shocked or would that be santa's reindeer. A condition that they call a "cold pit".

So the proof is in the pudding. We'll see how it works. Personally I'm forecasting a very cold winter, as I'm looking at the sun. Still no sunspots.
scpg02

Quote:
Personally I'm forecasting a very cold winter


Oh I could have told you that, no sun spots needed. Leg was hurting a few weeks ago, fall is coming early this year. Summer has been cool. Few days of hot, 103-106, but mostly 90s. It was cold last winter too. Lots of frost, we lost a lot of out door plants. Unual for this valley but not unheard of.

       Earth Sciences Forum Forum Index -> Atmosphere, Ocean, and Climate
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