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scpg02

Long-term increase in rainfall seen in tropics

Contact: Lynn Chandler
lynn.chandler-1@nasa.gov
301-286-2806
NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center

Long-term increase in rainfall seen in tropics

Quote:
NASA scientists have detected the first signs that tropical rainfall is on the rise with the longest and most complete data record available.

Using a 27-year-long global record of rainfall assembled by the international scientific community from satellite and ground-based instruments, the scientists found that the rainiest years in the tropics between 1979 and 2005 were mainly since 2001. The rainiest year was 2005, followed by 2004, 1998, 2003 and 2002, respectively.

"When we look at the whole planet over almost three decades, the total amount of rain falling has changed very little. But in the tropics, where nearly two-thirds of all rain falls, there has been an increase of 5 percent," says lead author Guojun Gu, a research scientist at Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md. The rainfall increase was concentrated over tropical oceans, with a slight decline over land.

Climate scientists predict that a warming trend in Earth's atmosphere and surface temperatures would produce an accelerated recycling of water between land, sea and air. Warmer temperatures increase the evaporation of water from the ocean and land and allow air to hold more moisture. Eventually, clouds form that produce rain and snow.

"A warming climate is the most plausible cause of this observed trend in tropical rainfall," says co-author Robert F. Adler, senior scientist at Goddard's Laboratory for Atmospheres. Adler and Gu are now working on a detailed study of the relationship between surface temperatures and rainfall patterns to further investigate the possible link. The study appears in the Aug. 1, 2007, issue of the American Meteorological Society's Journal of Climate.


http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2007-08/nsfc-lii082707.php
Andre

Thanks Maggie.

So increased rainfall also means increased energy in latent heat cycles: evaporation - condensation, for what it is worth
Latecommer

I have read over 100 research papers in the last 100 or so days for a project nearing completion. I recalll reading that the 70's and 80's were low rainfall years in the tropics. Was this a true recollection, and anyway, don't rainfall patterns fit into cycles as well? I remember a study that was done in South Africa (Alexander and Bailey) that was corrolated with Sun cycles, and another by van der Merwe and Willemse to the same general effect.

Why then is it then such a suprise that a dryer period is being followed by a wetter one? And will the amazement return when a dryer trend follows this wet?

It appears to me that "Drama" is being injected into every aspect of science. It isn't enough that we have people who live on "drama" in their lives, and "reality" TV, now it has invaded Science.

Count me as one not amazed by the continuation of thousands of years of cyclic behavior.
scpg02

Latecommer wrote:

It appears to me that "Drama" is being injected into every aspect of science. It isn't enough that we have people who live on "drama" in their lives, and "reality" TV, now it has invaded Science.


All the better to get grants with my dear.
Latecommer

unfortunatly what you said seems to be true. I guess even in science we now need a "graber" to draw interest.
It would seem that the advancement of knowledge would be impetuous enough.
Baywax

Creating the drama of weather predictions and attributing the weather to any little demons that can be dredged up relies heavily upon the failing, collective memory of the population.

Memory is the first thing to go with the onslaught of mad cow disease (500 different cow parts from around the world in each patty of a fast food burger), aluminium (used in weather modification programs), copious amounts of television viewing and poor education systems. These issues and conditions are all wide-spread in North American culture and are quite possibly deliberately engineered to reduce memory retention. Without short and/or long term memories, many people simply don't recognize a weather cycle or, for that matter, history repeating itself.

Speaking of memory, I had an enlightening talk with some Iranians recently (last night). I was asking about some of their oldest traditions when I remembered to ask about their old religion... the one "before Mohammed". They said... "uh... before Mohammed?" with a little snicker and I said, "yeah, before Mohammed" This brought out a funny little spark in their eyes that I didn't see before then they remembered the name for me, which I can't and couldn't put down in pixels.... but it had to do with the Sun as a centre of worship. Then the eldest of them, a very learned man, told me to read Franz Neitsch because he wrote an entire book about this "religion" and how the Iranians once held a philosophy that was very different from Mohammed's. It actually sounds like Akenatenmoses of Egypt may have influenced this sect... or visa versa.

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