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       Earth Sciences Forum Forum Index -> Atmosphere, Ocean, and Climate
scpg02

Like it or not, uncertainty and climate change go hand-in-ha

Contact: Vince Stricherz
vinces@u.washington.edu
206-543-2580
University of Washington

Like it or not, uncertainty and climate change go hand-in-hand

Quote:
Despite decades of ever more-exacting science projecting Earth's warming climate, there remains large uncertainty about just how much warming will actually occur.

Two University of Washington scientists believe the uncertainty remains so high because the climate system itself is very sensitive to a variety of factors, such as increased greenhouse gases or a higher concentration of atmospheric particles that reflect sunlight back into space.

In essence, the scientists found that the more likely it is that conditions will cause climate to warm, the more uncertainty exists about how much warming there will be.


http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2007-10/uow-lio102207.php
Baywax

Predicting the weather accurately is as uncertain as it gets!
John L

A great example of this is what is going on where I live here in the Raleigh NC area.  I have two gigantic ferns that I adopted from a client, who can't take the time to keep them alive in the large hanging baskets.  My goal is to bring them in, when the temperature goes below freezing, and then take them back out again when the low temp remains above freezing.

Normally I use Yahoo Weather and the Weather Underground for my forecasting.  But I have learned that I must check on a daily basis, because the forecast for day after tomorrow is in danger of radically changing, for the worse, if I let a single day go by without checking.  I could lose these magnificant ferns if I don't do that.  And they are heavy, and hard to unhook and bring in to hang in the dining room.

My point is that if it is difficult for the weather to be forecast on a 48 hour basis, what can one expect over climate forecasting?

       Earth Sciences Forum Forum Index -> Atmosphere, Ocean, and Climate
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