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Andre
Joined: 21 Jul 2007
Posts: 298
Location: Germany - The Nederlands
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 Posted: Sun Dec 09, 2007 11:45 am Post subject: Models and reality |
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Another study that might go unnoticed:
David H. Douglass, John R. Christy, Benjamin D. Pearson, and S. Fred Singer, 2007; A comparison of tropical temperature trends with model predictions, International Journal Of Climatology 27: (2007) (www.interscience.wiley.com) DOI: 10.1002/joc.1651
| Quote: | ABSTRACT:
We examine tropospheric temperature trends of 67 runs from 22 ‘Climate of the 20th Century’ model simulations and try to reconcile them with the best available updated observations (in the tropics during the satellite era). Model results and observed temperature trends are in disagreement in most of the tropical troposphere, being separated by more than twice the uncertainty of the model mean. In layers near 5 km, the modelled trend is 100 to 300% higher than observed, and, above 8 km, modelled and observed trends have opposite signs. These conclusions contrast strongly with those of recent publications based on essentially the same data. |
Two sentences from the summary/conclusion:
| Quote: | On the whole, the evidence indicates that model trends in the troposphere are very likely inconsistent with observations, which indicates that, since 1979, there is no significant long-term amplification factor relative to the surface. If these results continue to be supported, then future projections of temperature change, as depicted in the present suite of climate models, are likely too high....
The last 25 years constitute a period of more complete and accurate observations and more realistic modelling efforts. Yet the models are seen to disagree with the observations. We suggest, therefore, that projections of future climate based on these models be viewed with caution. |
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Andre
Joined: 21 Jul 2007
Posts: 298
Location: Germany - The Nederlands
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| Posted: Sat Dec 15, 2007 10:39 am Post subject: |
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could this have something to do with it?
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John L
Joined: 03 Nov 2007
Posts: 21
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| Posted: Sat Dec 15, 2007 10:08 pm Post subject: |
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I notice that Gavin Schmidt and his merry crew have already poo pooed it, with the usual fanfare.
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